As the war between Russia and Ukraine reaches its one-year mark, two University of Arizona professors say the war may continue through 2023 and beyond, but it's still hard to tell.
Professor John P. Willerton, who teaches Russian politics at the UA School of Government and Public Policy, and engineering professor Pavlo Krokhmal, a native of Kyiv, Ukraine, both agree it's likely a majority of Russians do support the invasion, making a resolution to the conflict unlikely.
Willerton didn’t give a specific timeline for when he believes the war will end, but he acknowledged the rumors that Russia has around 500,000 troops ready to deploy and is working to produce more artillery.
Willerton also said many Russians view this war as “existential,” which is why he believes there is no chance of any concessions on Russia’s behalf.
Krokhmal, who was visiting family in Ukraine just weeks before the Feb. 24, 2022, invasion, said he believes his home country will prevail with continued Ukranian resolve and help from its Western allies, including the U.S.
Krokhmal said the conflict could even be resolved by the end of the year with Ukraine coming out on top and with territories occupied by Russia being taken back as well.
“We have the manpower, and we have the artillery to win,” Krokhmal said. “With all of the weapons and the help being provided from the West, we are more than capable of fighting off Russian forces.”
According to a report from the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. helped Ukraine by investing $6.3 billion in security assistance in 2022, adding to the billions already devoted to the effort. The aid, under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, included tactical munition vehicles, avenger air defense systems and high-speed anti-radiation missiles.
The war’s death toll as of January included 180,000 Russian troops and 100,000 Ukrainian fighters as well as 30,000 civilians, according to reports by The New York Times.
*El Inde Arizona is a news service of the University of Arizona School of Journalism.
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